JPM, Feynman and Investigations

A superb column over the weekend by the personal investing columnist in the Wall Street Journal, Jason Zweig, struck a chord or two with us because of what it said about human knowledge and the occasional lack thereof.

Zweig was advising investors not to look to J.P.Morgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon for guidance about sound investing practices, but the late Nobel physics laureate Richard Feynman: "You must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool."

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For investors, says Zweig, “the bigger the commitment, the more certain they become that they must have been right to make it—and the harder it becomes to let go.” It’s all the more difficult to let go of ideas blessed by experts. Risk valuation used by banks has blown plenty of banks up, but bankers continue put their faith in it. Investors in turn put their faith in banks using this flawed technology.

Zweig advises that if a great investment such as J.P. Morgan Chase (prior to Friday) has paid handsomely, you should seek opinions of people who think you are wrong just to make sure you aren’t. If you love a stock, analyze the arguments of short sellers who hate it.

How does this translate into the world of fact finding? Take the brilliant candidate up for an executive posting: he’s never had a single black mark on his resume, every one of his references loves him, and he’s had great press for the past 10 years. He’s the J.P. Morgan of executive candidates, and he’s the perfect person to have examined by a fact investigator who will look for the following:

  • Litigation that hasn’t made the news;
  • Ownership of secret companies previously unknown, which could reveal business activity and litigation that also flew under the radar beforehand;
  • People this person worked with but were left off his resume because they dislike or distrust him.

Or take the requirement for an asset search either to enforce a judgment or to track down money held by a spouse in the midst of a divorce proceeding. Would we need to do the asset search in Switzerland or the Caribbean, or even across state lines? Clients often say no, but really have no way of knowing where the assets may be.

The only way to find out is to start with all the information we can get from the client (all company names, phone numbers personal and commercial, addresses just for starters). We then take an open-minded approach and follow the leads.

The thing that often throws even experienced investigators off the trail is finding something they don’t expect to see and then figuring they must be wrong. “Our guy has never left New Jersey, so this can’t be his huge house in Pennsylvania that’s owned by a Cayman Islands company” is about the worst thing an investigator could conclude.

Zweig’s kicker is worth remembering for investors and investigators alike: “The smarter you are, the more easily you can fool yourself.”

Tracking Down Spouse's Hidden Money: Don't Count on Taking Shortcuts

Whether one spouse hides money from the other during a portion of their marriage (and the Wall Street Journal reported this week that 58% of spouses say they do), the serious attempt to track it down will almost always come in the time leading up to a divorce.

Divorces can be long and painful journeys, and despite the marvel of the internet, so can asset searches – especially when the other side knows you’ll be lookingGettyImages_109764060.jpg.

Clicking your way to assets becomes a little easier when you get to the stage of electronic discovery, as the article claims. Proper (legal) access to a computer, smartphone or Facebook account can work wonders. But the idea that a spouse or her accountant can dispense with paper records, do a little Googling and come up with major assets a lot of the time is just plain wrong.

Sometimes, you can get lucky. An accountant uncovered real estate owned by a the other side by using Google, according to the article, and the web also yielded information that the husband had sold his supposedly valueless company for millions.

We’ve written before about the limits of Google here, where we point out that if you Google yourself, you will probably find less than one percent of the information that you know about yourself. Why should your spouse’s secrets tumble onto the Google results screen when yours and those of most people you know will not?

Google is also deficient as a main search tool because “good” results for Google may not be good results for you. Google is a business, not a non-profit catalogue of the world’s information. If an obscure financial asset held by a brand new limited liability company controlled by your husband is like gold for you, Google may not get excited enough to tell you about it before page 10 or page 100 because nobody’s linked to it yet and it contains no lucrative terms to sell in Adwords. We went into this and other Google matters here.

The sad truth for people hunting for assets is that it’s often hard work that involves looking through paper. Of course, as the article mentions, there are all kinds of ways to tap into computers, phone lines and bank accounts. The trouble is, a lot of that kind of thing is illegal. Go into court with illegally-obtained evidence, and you often come out a loser.

The main reason electronic searches won’t be enough to uncover assets? Those assets are recorded only on paper. At best, in most of the more than 3,000 counties in this country, you can find abstracts of deeds, mortgages, court documents and security agreements on line, but to read them you need to retrieve paper in physical form.

What kind of thing is on paper that’s not on the web? For starters:

  • Co-defendants. Your husband is sued in Pennsylvania, but not on the electronic abstract are the names of his co-defendants. One of those could be his LLC through which he owns property you don’t know about.
  • Collateral. When you borrow money in a securitized loan, the collateral gets recorded in writing. Sometimes you can see these UCC Article 9 security agreements on line, and sometimes you can’t.
  • Other adversaries who could help you. Looking at other people who have tangled with your spouse can help with information gathering because those people may know more about his business than you do.  

Finally, one critical tool is missing from the article on the electronic tool kit investigators now carry: it saves tremendous time, lets you conduct research from your office the way computers do, and even allows for lightning-quick follow-up. It’s called the telephone.

We don’t recommend using it until you’ve done all your research (lest you tip off your spouse that you’re getting close and give him the chance to move the assets). However, used properly, the phone can be the asset-hunter’s best friend. 

The Putin Plot and Investigative Timelines

We tell every new client the same thing: when we report on a person we investigate, chronology is critical.

Take the New York Times story this week with the headline, “Plot to Kill Putin is Uncovered.” We rushed to read this because it sounds as if someone tried to kill the Russian leader that day, the previous day or perhaps even earlier in the week.

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In fact, security services foiled the plot six weeks before, but are only leaking the information now. The headline could easily have been “Security Services Leak News of Old, Foiled Plot to Kill Putin.”

The key difference is that the plot itself is not the only thing you want in your chronology, but also the revelation of the plot and then even after that, the willingness of politicians and security services to confirm it.

After all, any plot we know about would have to have a time at which it was revealed. Otherwise we wouldn’t know about it. If the times are close together, such as the attempt on President Reagan’s life, that’s one thing. There was no speculation that the attempt on Reagan was manipulated at the time for political gain by timing news of its happening. This plot against Putin is quite another matter.

Academics devoted to figuring out how fact investigators think have long known about the importance of time lines. My colleague Peter Tillers and David Schum, in their classic A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation state that “the construction of a hierarchy of possibilities takes into account the order in which evidence was discovered.”

Still, many investigators love to break events up by type (securities violations here, real estate purchases there, and then place each category in reverse-chronological order). Beyond failing to tell a coherent story, strange juxtapositions that could jump out at a person reading a story can get lost without a timeline.

Take another case we worked on recently. A man owed our client in excess of $1 million, but after incurring the debt went bankrupt. Was he really judgment-proof? The man’s ex-wife is a successful entrepreneur. He was divorced. He lived in a community property state.

That doesn’t tell us very much until we take those facts and put them in chronological order:

Got married. Moved to community property state. Wife started prosperous business. Got divorced after long matrimonial case. Declared bankrupt within a month of the divorce. Sounds a little suspicious when you line it all up on a timeline, doesn’t it? 

Secret Lender Agents Make Asset Searches Harder

It’s always nice to be able to know who has loaned people money. It helps in asset searches, of course, but we also like to call bankers in after-fraud investigations. Now getting to the identity of those lenders is about to get harder.

Secured creditors have to put their customers on the public record. Such lending on real estate is called a mortgage, and on other kinds of property a “UCC-9” security agreement (known long ago as a chattel mortgage).

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Who’s loaned money to whom is useful information if you’re a lender’s competitor, but it’s also great information in an asset search. You often need to contact other creditors to swap information, or else in litigation to figure out whether the person you are investigating may have perpetrated a fraud. What they told their lenders can be critically important.

Lenders have in the past tried to file under trade names (also known as DBA’s, for “doing business as,”) but those are also a matter of public record if not always findable on line. You can make up a name on a financing statement, but that gets awkward when it’s time to go to court and enforce a security interest.

The Company Corporation in Delaware thinks it has come up with a good solution that it’s recently started marketing: under UCC Article 9, lenders can submit the name of an authorized representative and have them listed in place of the lender, just the way people forming Delaware corporations can hide their identity by hiring an incorporator and registered agent. CSC offers that kind of service for Delaware corporations, and now says it’s the first to go into cloaking the identities of UCC creditors.

Now, instead of looking up who loaned money to a debtor, fact finders may have to determine who the representative of the lender is and then send in questions via that representative to uncover the identity of the lender. Who will answer? It could be the lender, but the lender won’t be under any obligation to respond. Or, depending on the agreement between the representative and the lender, you could be forced to deal with an intermediary representative instead of going right to the bank or finance company in question.

Just one more reason that data dumps by computer – never enough in conducting any kind of thorough investigation – fall short of the mark. Now even a search for a lender that used to be findable by computer or by an entry-level clerk may need the hand of someone experienced enough to be able to ask the right questions in the right way just to get the right person to come to the phone. 

Forensic Investigations: Due Diligence Done Correctly

What’s the difference between a forensic audit and a regular audit? We think we know the difference when we see it, but what is it?  The issue came up before a short talk I was giving to some accountants last week, and the answer was relevant to our fact-finding business.

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A regular audit is not comprehensive. It doesn’t presume there’s something wrong and it doesn’t even look at every supporting document in a company’s accounts. If it did, annually auditing an entire large company would be impossible.

A forensic auditor goes in with the presumption that something may be wrong, and decides to leave nothing unexamined on the hunch that there is fraud in a particular department or company line of business.

The distinction holds for many other kinds of investigations. You can do the once-over-lightly check for criminal history and check references given, or you can decide to turn over every court case involving your subject, check for side companies at every address he’s had in the past five years, and perhaps talk to everyone he’s sued or been sued by – ever.

That’s what we would call a forensic investigation. If the New York State Society of CPAs says that a forensic accountant “prepares each case as if it will result in litigation in the future,” that is the approach a good investigator should take too. Gather facts, but do it meticulously so that you can back up your findings if anything goes to court. And whatever you do, don’t break the law or violate ethical rules when you gather your facts, because a fact that’s not admissible as evidence may turn out to be useless to your client.

How could this distinction work in practice? A normal “investigation” could turn up five court cases in Jefferson County. An investigator could report that none of them were criminal matters and had all settled. We’ve seen reports that really say this, and they are often not worth the paper they are written on.

What you should ask when you hire a fact finder is not for reports of settled cases, but a summary of what was in the papers filed in court. What were the allegations against the person? What kind of evidence was on the public record? And (probably only available by interviews), what were the terms of the settlement?

When it comes to due diligence on a prospective CEO or investment partner, regular background checks verify employment, education and call the places on the resume to make sure the person worked there.

Forensic due diligence looks for the places the person worked that are NOT on the resume (Fired? Quit to avoid being fired?) and the people not listed as references (“Everyone thought he was lazy and were happy when he left.”)

It’s not that a forensic investigator presumes that everyone he looks at is hiding something bad. But if they are, he has a much better chance of finding it than someone using the approach of once-over-lightly.

Low-Cost Background Checks Ruin Lives

An enraging story by the Associated Press spells it out: computers used by background checkers mix up two people with the same name. Blameless woman gets tagged with a criminal record that isn’t hers, can’t get work and ends up homeless.

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We’ve written about the danger in relying on the “intelligence” of computers here, and the limitations of Google here. The message in these as well as the AP story about the ruined lives of background checks gone wrong are the same: there is no substitute for having an intelligent person conduct your research.

We saw such a problem earlier this year: a client called and said he wanted to hire (let’s call him) Robert M. Johnson for a high-paying job. Robert M. Johnson is an accomplished professional with a great resume and wonderful references. How then to explain the criminal record for fraud turned up by one of the databases? Robert M. Johnson the candidate said, “I’ve never been convicted of any crime. You’ve got the wrong person.”

Turned out he was right and the database was wrong. How could we tell?

1. We looked up the criminal case in question. While the AP story is correct that more and more criminal records are on line, the cases themselves – the critical documents – often are not and in any case need careful reading. We looked at the sentencing report in this case and found that the criminal Robert M. Johnson was sentenced to serve his time in a particular southern state to be close to “home and family.”

2. We then found that the Robert M. Johnson up for the job had no ties whatsoever to this southern state. His parents didn’t live there, he had never lived there, his Social Security number was not issued there, and he was working in Connecticut while the criminal Robert Johnson was committing his crimes down south.

This seems like simple work, but the databases were incapable of making the mundane connections that distinguished two very different men with the same common name. Why would this be?

To start with, not all databases come up with the same information. One may know where a person has worked for the last ten years, while another will have no information about employment. Still, the employment-light database will do a great job associating a person with companies he may own or on whose boards he serves. Both kinds of information are vital, but no machine can yet put them together to draw a complete picture.

Complete pictures come when the human mind gets involved, and even then, databases can only take you so far. We’ve written here about that too, and how interviewing is sometimes the only way to get the information you’re looking for.

But interviews or not, automated searching is like letting a robot build a car and then having another robot inspect the thing. The robots are certainly useful and lower the cost of the vehicle, but would you drive that car before a person had looked it over? 

Thinking About Divorce? The Essential Checklist

It happens all the time.  A divorce lawyer calls us and says his client is thinking of suing her husband for divorce, but knows very little about the family’s finances. What are the sources of income? Where is the money invested? Does the husband have anything hidden in companies she doesn’t know about?

After years of telling clients to tell us “everything you know about your husband’s money, investments and habits that could help us to find assets,” we came up (at the suggestion of a client) with a better idea: a checklist to help clients under stress ask themselves all the right questions before we begin an asset search.

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Here is that list. It’s been very helpful not only in a couple of recent divorce cases, but also in other kinds of asset searches.

The questions are to be asked about the person being searched, not the client being interviewed.

1)      What are their full names? Have they ever used any other names? Single names? Other married names?  Variations of their current names? (E.g. using their middle name or initials instead of their first, etc.?)

2)      When were they born?

3)      Where were they born?

4)      Where do they live? What are the addresses? Do they own property there? Keep in mind this includes real estate, as well as cars, boats, planes, etc. And real estate is more than just homes: It also includes land and commercial buildings.

5)      What phone numbers are associated with them? Home? Office? Mobiles?  

6)      Where do they vacation? Do they own property there? What are the addresses? What are the phone numbers for those properties?

7)      Where do they like to travel? How frequently do they go there? Might they own property there?

8)      Where do they bank?

9)      Do they have investments? Stock? Bonds? Property? Other businesses?

10)   Do they have any paid insurance policies with cash value?

11)    Do they have any annuities that you know of?

12)    Where do they currently work? What is the address there? What is their position?

13)    Do they have any ownership interest where they work?

14)    Do they or have they had any partners? What are their full names? Where do they live? What are their addresses?

15)    Have they had any previous jobs? What was the address there? What was their position?

16)    Have they had any ownership interest where they previously worked?

17)    Do they currently own any companies? What are their names? What do they do? What are their addresses? What phone numbers are associated with them?

18)    Have they previously owned any companies?

19)    If they own companies or have owned companies in the past, what were they named? Are there any naming conventions they’ve relied on? For example, initials of names? City names? Variations on the same name? (St. Mark Co., St. Mark Associates, St. Mark Partnerships, etc.). Can you guess what they may name a new company?

20)    What did the companies do? What are their addresses? What phone numbers are associated with them?

World on a String

The world is getting smaller in many ways, including for fact finders looking to get information about companies.

Sometimes, the company across the street will file more information about itself halfway around the world than it will in its own jurisdiction. With a computer or a good person on the ground far away, the information can be yours in a matter of minutes or hours.

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Most people know the way this usually works: a company from a country with rotten disclosure wants to raise money in the U.S., and so is subject to the rigorous reporting requirements by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Foreign companies can be forced to disclose executive pay packages, and that can sometimes give you the name of a private company the executive gets his pay sent to. Great stuff, and only available because the government forces the information out of the company.

But what about the other direction? Companies from the U.S. or other jurisdictions that have great disclosure, which nonetheless turn over more information overseas than they might at home?

Two cases in point:

Last month the EU unveiled legislation to require “transparency” from “extractive companies,” which means companies that dig or pump stuff out of the ground or chop down trees. Even private companies that ordinarily would have no major reporting requirements to non-shareholders would have to disclose payments they made country-by-country.

A time-honored gift to U.S. investigators is Companies House in the United Kingdom. Private companies from anywhere in the world that want a presence in the U.K. have to register. You get names of directors, addresses, shareholder information and financials.

So the next time you have to look up information on a company, ask not only where the company is incorporated. Ask also: “where does it do business?”

A Fact-Finding Test for Lawyers

Law schools have known for years that they turn out lawyers without training on how to gather facts. What’s changed recently is that law schools are starting to think this isn’t such a good idea.

My colleague Peter Tillers, with whom I teach a course in fact investigation, has rounded up some of the most compelling arguments in favor of more hands-on teaching of how to gather the facts lawyers need.

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Facts matter, because before lawyers can ever get in front of a judge to argue the finer points of law as they rehearsed in moot court competitions, they need facts to help their case. Even without a courtroom in the picture, better facts make for better settlements.

How in the world can you tell how good a person’s fact-finding skills are? It’s always helpful to know before a court-imposed deadline looms, when the facts you need could remain stubbornly elusive.

Try the following test/exercise on new associates or even yourself:

1. Google yourself (or relatives if you don’t own property) and try to find public-records evidence of where you or your relatives live. What was paid for the house and what was the mortgage? Chances are you won’t be able to find much that’s useful, a good lesson in the limitations of Google searching. We’ve written about that here. Hint: do you really think a court would accept a price on Zillow.com as evidence of anything?

2. Now try to find the deed and mortgage another way, with public-records sites at county level. Start here to see where your county’s website is. Still couldn’t find it on line? Perhaps that’s because the vast majority of records in the U.S.  are still in hard copy only. You have to go to a county records office and get them (or hire someone to do it for you).

3. Now pick a store near your office and try to find out who owns the company that runs the store and owns the building it’s in. You will probably need a combination of property records and filings from the Secretary of State.

Things get trickier when you get into the area of finding assets, including figuring out whether your person owns shares in an LLC or partnership he doesn’t want you know about. If you can’t reasonably expect someone to get a simple deed or incorporation record, the advanced stuff will most likely prove completely elusive.

Google and Human Memory

We’ve written before here and here about the limitations of Google. So much of what we think we can find on Google is not there because it was never on the internet, or can disappear from Google’s results from one hour to the next.

Now comes a study conducted at Columbia University and reported in The Washington Post that says people are less likely to remember things they think they can recover via Google or other search engines.

Given the disconnect between what we think we can get off Google and what we often fail to find, that’s a disconcerting finding.

Broadly speaking, Google is fine for recalling things you used to look up in the World Almanac: What is Poland’s GDP? When did Groucho Marx die? Who is the junior senator from Wyoming?*

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But unless you are extremely famous, Google is rotten at getting you information about yourself or most people you know. Court records, professional licenses, deeds and mortgages – all the pieces of our lives that help to write our life stories – these are rarely on Google. Google yourself and see if more than five percent of your whole life appears.

Our feedback indicates that our most useful tip about how to get the most out of Google is when we talk about “meta searching.” In brief, this is looking on Google for a way to find something that will lead you to the answer you want. If you’re searching for a particular ship, you may not find it on Google. But you probably will find indexes of ships (that may not be on line), or else names of agents you could call to track a ship down.

In this way, Google makes finding things faster, but you still have to use your head. You may also need a telephone and some energy to go somewhere to look things up in books or in databases not connected to the internet.

One last tip: before you head out to the library, write down the address. It may not be on Google either and even if it turns out to be, scientists say you may forget it before you arrive.

 

*$430 billion (2009); 1977; John Barrasso.

Asset Searches for Grown-Ups

Memo to federal regulators: it’s not enough to impose fines; you have to make sure you collect them if you want people to be afraid of you. The same goes for private litigants thinking of suing to collect money they’re owed. Without chance of collection, what’s the point?

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have failed to collect more than one-third of the $12 billion in penalties handed out since 2005. Looking at the CFTC alone, a staggering 75% of fines imposed are not being paid.

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This story reminded me of my debtor-creditor professor in law school who opened his second-year course with a speech that said something like:

“In first year, you do the baby courses – torts and contracts – where A sues B and A wins. Now in second year, we find out that B often doesn’t have to pay. In the real grown-up world, B wins.”

In the real world, B may have well-protected assets in a series of limited liability companies or limited partnerships, and can afford a little more risk than a person with 100% equity in a house held in his own name. B may also have real estate you don’t know about because it’s in a different state or offshore. B may also own shares in companies with good liquid assets, but first you have to identify those companies.

While the government imposes fines first and then figures out how to collect, private litigants get to decide ahead of time whether suing someone is worth the effort. Later on, the decision may come once they have a default judgment in hand, but no hint of easily-seized assets.

Here is a brief checklist of some of the things our clients like us to look for when doing asset searches:

  • Where does the subject live? Who owns the house? If it’s a company, that could be his.
  • Who owns his place of work? Some people like to have the shareholders pay rent to the landlord, who turns out to be the company president collecting rent for himself.
  • Are any companies you don’t already know about run out of either home or office?
  • Has anyone ever sued or been sued by any of the companies we may now be discovering? Litigation opponents who got discovery against our subject may know lots more about him than we do.
  • Interviewing people with knowledge of the subject can yield tremendous results in a highly-cost effective way. The public-record steps taken above can spit out the names of a dozen people easily located and contacted in a matter of hours.

The cost of such an investigation done right is often a tiny fraction of the money at stake or the fees involved in complex litigation.

 

 

Why the Greek Crisis Should Make you Think about Switzerland

One thing we always tell new clients: there is no such thing as a “local” investigation. A Russian guy in L.A. means you could be dealing with a Nevada corporation in addition to Russia and California. An apartment in Miami may be owned by a British Virgin Islands company.

That’s a good thing to remember when dealing with Greece, and especially if you’re counting on the solvency or liquid assets of a business partner. Your business could be in Greece, but your partner’s collateral could be sitting in HSBC in Switzerland, or in Cyprus. While cracking a Swiss bank account isn’t as hard as it once was, it’s no piece of cake even with a subpoena. Cyprus may be part of the European Union, but it’s not a member of the Financial Action Task Force, the OECD’s umbrella group that fights money laundering. We’ve had experience trying to find assets in Cyprus, and our clients don’t find it fun.

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As Greece’s new restructuring plan (which The Economist says is doomed to fail) includes plans to sell state-owned assets, it’s easy to envision foreign investors going into partnership with locals to buy up cheap assets. The local participation may be to get around Greece’s legendary bureaucracy, and local partners sometimes put up cash or guarantees. Given what’s been going on in Greece of late, bank balances in euros held in Greek banks don’t seem to be the most secure kind of backing an investor could be looking at.

The Bank of Greece’s own statistics make for sobering reading. In April, Greece’s net capital flows veered into negative territory. The numbers would have been much worse this year but for large injections of money from the EU.

As long as a year ago The Financial Times was reporting that Greeks were shoveling their bank deposits out of the country to Switzerland, Cyprus and other international points. With the teargas and the fragile plans being discussed this week, no asset search of a Greek person of any means should be complete without looking beyond the country’s borders.

Some other tips before concluding a deal with anyone in Greece or any other jurisdiction with risk of capital flight:

  • As part of your standard due diligence, find out whether this person has ever been sued in the places he or she does business, such as the U.S. or the U.K. Previous business partners will have come to know this person and will probably have included associated companies along with the person in their lawsuit. Those companies could contain assets worth going after either as part of a guarantee or to attempt to attach later on.
  • Do a basic verification of the person’s alleged contacts in the home country. We have seen many people boast that they are “very close” to a key minister or other connected official, when in fact no particular bond exists. In countries where relationships matter most, it’s the quality of those relationships that is critical. Such things are seldom written down, but are rather determined by quietly interviewing knowledgeable people in the country in question.
  • Insist on adjudication of disputes outside the country in question, whether you are looking for arbitration or traditional legal remedies. According to Transparency International Greece’s public corruption problem is worse than Romania’s and almost as bad as the rating achieved by India.